**4.0 RESULTS AND DATA ANALYSIS**

This chapter shows and explains the results of the analysis of data on poverty rates, HIPC contribution and GDP growth rates, GDP growth rates with HIPC contribution and HIPC contribution of poverty reduction expenditure. The graph here was designed using Microsoft Excel version 2007 and the tables were developed with SPSS version 16.0.

**4.1 RELATIONS BETWEEN GDP GROWTH RATES WITHOUT HIPC AND POVERTY RATES AND BETWEEN HIPC CONTRIBUTION AND GDP GROWTH RATES**

Figure 1: Trends of poverty rates, GDP without HIPC growth rates, HIPC contribution growth rates, GDP with HIPC growth rates

Figure 1 clearly shows a falling trend in poverty rates from 2000 to 2006. Poverty rates reduced from 39.5 per cent in 2000 to 34.0 per cent in 2003, indicating 5.5 per cent reduction. It dropped further by the same margin to 28.5 per cent in 2005. The projected poverty rates to 2007 showed a further reduction by a margin of 5.0 per cent to 23.5 per cent, all things being equal.

On the other hand, GDP without HIPC growth rates and HIPC contribution of reducing poverty expenditure depicted upward trends from 2000 to 2006. Besides, HIPC contribution to GDP also showed an upward trend during the same period. However, the margins of growth for GDP without HIPC contribution, GDP with HIPC contribution and HIPC contribution to GDP were small. From the graph, it is clear that the poverty rates and HIPC contribution and GDP and growth rates are inversely related.

**Correlations between poverty rates and growth rates without HIPC, and Poverty rates and growth rates with HIPC contribution**

Pearson Correlation | Growth rate without HIPC contribution(2000-2007) | HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure/GDP |

Poverty Rates | -0.92 | -0.67 |

The correlation coefficient between poverty rates and growth rates without HIPC is -0.92 which shows a very strong negative or inverse relationship between growth rates and poverty rates. This means that when GDP growth rates increases poverty rates decreases significantly and vice versa.

The correlation coefficient between poverty rates and HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure per GDP is – 0.64 which indicates a strong inverse relationship between poverty rates and HIPC contribution of poverty reduction expenditure. This explains that when HIPC contribution of poverty reduction expenditure increases poverty rates reduces, and vice versa.

**Coefficients of the regression equation for Poverty, GDP growth rates without HIPC and HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure**

Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | |

B | Std. Error | Beta | |||

(Constant) | 91.371 | 1.501 | 60.855 | .010 | |

Growth rate without HIPC contribution | -7.643 | 0.237 | -0.780 | -32.262 | .020 |

HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure/GDP | -3.397 | 0.194 | -0.424 | -17.532 | .036 |

a. Dependent Variable: Poverty Rates |

The linear regression model is of the form **Y = β _{1}X_{1} + β_{2}X_{2} +**

Using the standardized coefficients β, the regression equation is **Y = -0.780****X _{1}**

Also the regression equation indicates that a percentage change in HIPC expenditure on poverty reduction results in –0.42 percent change in poverty. This means that a percentage increase in HIPC expenditure towards poverty reduction induces 0.42 percent reduction in poverty.

ANOVA ^{b} |
||||||

Model | Sum of Squares | df | Mean Square | F | Sig. | |

1 | Regression | 143.112 | 2 | 71.556 | 954.083 | .023^{a} |

Residual | .075 | 1 | .075 | |||

Total | 143.187 | 3 | ||||

a. Predictors: (Constant), HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure/GDP, Growth rate without HIPCcontribution(2000-2007) | ||||||

b. Dependent Variable: Poverty Rates |

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