4.0            RESULTS AND DATA ANALYSIS

This chapter shows and explains the results of the analysis of data on poverty rates, HIPC contribution and GDP growth rates, GDP growth rates with HIPC contribution and HIPC contribution of poverty reduction expenditure. The graph here was designed using Microsoft Excel version 2007 and the tables were developed with SPSS version 16.0.

4.1            RELATIONS BETWEEN GDP GROWTH RATES WITHOUT HIPC AND POVERTY RATES AND BETWEEN HIPC CONTRIBUTION AND GDP GROWTH RATES

Figure 1: Trends of poverty rates, GDP without HIPC growth rates, HIPC contribution growth    rates, GDP with HIPC growth rates

Figure 1 clearly shows a falling trend in poverty rates from 2000 to 2006. Poverty rates reduced from 39.5 per cent in 2000 to 34.0 per cent in 2003, indicating 5.5 per cent reduction. It dropped further by the same margin to 28.5 per cent in 2005. The projected poverty rates to 2007 showed a further reduction by a margin of 5.0 per cent to 23.5 per cent, all things being equal.

On the other hand, GDP without HIPC growth rates and HIPC contribution of reducing poverty expenditure depicted upward trends from 2000 to 2006. Besides, HIPC contribution to GDP also showed an upward trend during the same period. However, the margins of growth for GDP without HIPC contribution, GDP with HIPC contribution and HIPC contribution to GDP were small.  From the graph, it is clear that the poverty rates and HIPC contribution and GDP and growth rates are inversely related.

Correlations between poverty rates and growth rates without HIPC, and Poverty rates and growth rates with HIPC contribution

 Pearson Correlation Growth rate without  HIPC contribution(2000-2007) HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure/GDP Poverty Rates -0.92 -0.67

The correlation coefficient between poverty rates and growth rates without HIPC is -0.92 which shows a very strong negative or inverse relationship between growth rates and poverty rates. This means that when GDP growth rates increases poverty rates decreases significantly and vice versa.

The correlation coefficient between poverty rates and HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure per GDP is – 0.64 which indicates a strong inverse relationship between poverty rates and HIPC contribution of poverty reduction expenditure. This explains that when HIPC contribution of poverty reduction expenditure increases poverty rates reduces, and vice versa.

Coefficients of the regression equation for Poverty, GDP growth rates without HIPC and HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure

 Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta (Constant) 91.371 1.501 60.855 .010 Growth rate without  HIPC contribution -7.643 0.237 -0.780 -32.262 .020 HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure/GDP -3.397 0.194 -0.424 -17.532 .036 a. Dependent Variable: Poverty Rates

The linear regression model is of the form Y = β1X1 + β2X2 + α where y is the estimated poverty rates, β1 is the coefficient of the GDP growth rate without HIPC indicating the contribution of GDP without HIPC growth to poverty reduction as a result of a unit change in GDP growth rate, X1 is the variable GDP growth rate, β2 is the coefficient of HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure/GDP showing the contribution of HIPC expenditure on poverty reduction to poverty reduction resulting from a unit change in HIPC expenditure on poverty reduction, X2 is the variable HIPC expenditure contribution of poverty reducing expenditure /GDP and α is a constant of poverty levels which is accounted for other factors other than GDP growth rates and HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure/GDP.

Using the standardized coefficients β, the regression equation is Y = -0.780X1 0.424X2.  This equation explains that a percentage change in GDP without HIPC growth rates results in -0.780 percentage change in the poverty rates. In other words, a percentage growth in GDP without HIPC rates accounts for 0.780 percent reduction in poverty rates. On the other hand, a percentage reduction in GDP without HIPC growth rates brings about 0.780 percent increase in poverty.

Also the regression equation indicates that a percentage change in HIPC expenditure on poverty reduction results in –0.42 percent change in poverty. This means that a percentage increase in HIPC expenditure towards poverty reduction induces 0.42 percent reduction in poverty.

 ANOVA b Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 143.112 2 71.556 954.083 .023a Residual .075 1 .075 Total 143.187 3 a. Predictors: (Constant), HIPC contribution of poverty reducing expenditure/GDP, Growth rate without  HIPCcontribution(2000-2007) b. Dependent Variable: Poverty Rates

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